Despite the present pain of the recession, several employment indicators are pointing to brighter days ahead for Tooele County.

A drop in unemployment, a downward trend in new applications filed for unemployment benefits, and more jobs predicted to come online before the end of the year are among the positive signs.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment in Tooele County dropped from 6.7 percent in July to 6.4 percent in August, reversing a trend of 17 consecutive months of increasing unemployment. That’s still the sixth-highest unemployment rate since January 1990, and higher than the state unemployment rate of 6 percent.

The unemployment rate in Tooele County has been on a steady climb since reaching an all-time low of 2.7 percent in January 2007. Since 1990, the highest recorded unemployment rate for Tooele County was 7.2 percent in November 1992.

“By the end of 2009, it appears that the deteriorating economic conditions in Tooele County have slowed significantly,” writes Utah Department of Workforce Services regional economist James Robson in the August 2009 Tooele County Fact Sheet. “[But] the weakness in the labor market will likely persist during the remainder of 2009 and into 2010.”

Unemployment is a lagging indicator of the health of the economy, however, since it takes four to five months after each quarter before DWS has reliable job counts to work with, Robson said.

One statistic that provides more immediate, almost concurrent information on job losses is weekly unemployment insurance claims, filed by workers seeking state benefits. This data is available to DWS as soon as a week after the claims are filed.

In Tooele County, the four-week average for initial unemployment insurance claims started rising in October 2008. At that time, new claims were averaging 30 per week, but had risen to a peak of over 90 by April 2009, according to Robson. Since April, new claims for unemployment have been on a steady decline, reaching 38 in July.

“August and September unemployment claims have been hovering just below 40 claims,” Robson said. “This is a little higher than we might expect in a healthier economy. Construction and manufacturing jobs continue to be the hardest hit by this recession. In Tooele and throughout the state, education, government and health services are the major growth areas, though that may be changing next year as the state prepares for another round of budget cuts.”

While the DWS data reflects a downturn in manufacturing, including scaled down operations at Conestoga Wood Specialties and Detroit Diesel, there are still jobs being created elsewhere. Last month GENCO, which will be operating the Reckitt-Benckiser distribution center in the Miller Motorsports Business Park, held a job fair to fill 60 positions starting Nov. 1. The same week, Jacobs Technology also held a job fair and interviewed for 20 new positions at the Tooele Army Depot. Allegheny Technologies has been gradually hiring as the Fortune 500 company starts ramping up production of titanium at its new Rowley plant this month. Allegheny has said they expect to employ as many as 150 people at the new plant.

A new program to test unmanned aircraft at Dugway is also expected to bring 250 contractors and government workers to Tooele County.

While these figures are positive, other employment indicators are tempering economists’ optimism.

The home-building industry remains in a slump, with construction jobs down 33 percent from last year through March, according to the Department of Workforce Services. Manufacturing employment is also down 9 percent from last year.

Still, average monthly wages in Tooele County have increased slightly during the recession.

In 2008, the average monthly wage was $3,142, which was 1.7 percent higher than 2007. The average monthly wage for the first quarter of 2009 was $3,232, or 2.8 percent above the 2008 average monthly wage.

“Fortunately, initial [unemployment] claims are trending down from their record levels seen earlier this year,” Robson said. “Unfortunately, current elevated claims for unemployment insurance that are evident all along the Wasatch Front and other areas of the state, indicate that we aren’t out of the woods yet with this recession.”

Tim Gillie: tgillie@tooeletranscript.com